BRUSSELS — The El Nino weather pattern is forming, and is expected to cause extreme weather around the world this year, the WMO said yesterday. Scientists say climate change will make its impact especially severe.
The World Meteorological Organization said there is an 80 per cent chance that an El Nino event develops between June and August, and a 90 per cent chance it will last until at least November. The statement is the clearest signal yet of the likelihood.
The El Nino phenomenon naturally occurs every two to seven years, when weakening trade winds result in warmer waters in the eastern Pacific. The result tends to be higher global temperatures, and disrupted rainfall — meaning drought in some regions, heavy rains in others. It also affects hurricane formation.
Two things make this year’s forecast particularly worrying.
The first is the chance that this year’s El Nino — and its impact — will be stronger than typical. The WMO said there was still uncertainty, and some models predict a “strong” El Nino while others do not. WMO forecasts suggest a strong El Nino is possible, defined by sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific of at least 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above average.
The second cause for concern is climate change.
Greenhouse gas emissions have increased the planet’s average temperature by around 1.3C since pre-industrial times. That higher baseline supercharges the effects of El Nino — enabling higher temperature spikes, more intense droughts, heatwaves, rains, and the resulting disasters, including bushfires, floods and crop failures.
“When we get an El Nino, because of the underlying climate change ... these things become more intensified and they’re more impactful,” said Piers Forster, Professor of Physical Climate Change at the University of Leeds. The combination of climate change and El Nino has led the WMO to warn that 2027 could be the hottest year since records began. The last El Nino year, 2024, holds the record. That El Nino was regarded by the WMO as strong.
